A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. During that period, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. After Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
This is a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have piled up.
According to Opta, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG notably superior than the other team. For a club that have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their star man to bail them out with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus Manchester United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger might become the player he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
