A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
